角色及其利益衝突 (1)

讀者Terence來信(見附文),謂他急於買入一個嘉雲台1,600呎單位,想請教我好幾個問題。

 

Terence那樣的讀者,我常常遭遇到,很想藉此機會表一個態。我在這個專欄的角色,是評論員或作者,而非投資顧問。讀者朋友往往就買賣某個具體單位請教我好些具體問題。要回答這些問題,答者必須具體了解該等物業的各種情況,再具體分析,最後才可作具體結論和提供具體意見。做這些事,已是投資顧問範圍內的工作,我不大方便亦沒有時間為個別讀者出謀獻策,希望他們見諒。

 

盡管如此,如果近期這些讀者細心閱讀我去年10月18日以來三篇評論地產市道的文章(分別是《對未來樓市的估量》、《賣家應把握下跌浪中每一個反彈》及《樓市稍告喘定,考驗仍在後頭》),他們所需要的答案,應該不言而喻。以嘉雲台為例,它屬於豪宅,我在《對未來樓市的估量》一文中說,一般而言,豪宅在這個下跌浪中會跌去60%或以上。嘉雲台1,600呎單位在去年高峯期呎價高達$14,000至$15,000,跌60%,呎價會調整至$5,600至$6,000,遠低於Terence所提及的$10,000呎價。當然,我了解到在豪宅中,嘉雲台過去的價格泡沫成份較輕,跌幅有可能低於60%,這就需要具體情況具體分析。但無論如何,現時$10,000呎價肯定仍未跌夠,Terence暫時忍手等待較為上算。至於等到什麼時候,難說得很,要看未來跌幅和經濟衰退的進程,跌得急,衰退得快,樓價見底所需時間就短些,否則就長些。

 

我看今年底再考慮入市的問題未遲。

- 待續 -

 

附文

20th December, 2008

Dear Mr Wong,

I like your analysis.I am trying to buy a 1600 sq ft property in Cavendish Heights, but the asking price is around HKD17m and the recent transaction prices were around HKD15.5 to 16.5m. I am quite keen to move to a large flat. Based on your experience in this field, do you think that the price will be down to HK$12m next year? Do you have any expected price of that property and the timeframe.

Sorry for this stupid and vague question. As buying a property is a big issue from a personal’s finance angle, I would like to seek your expert view.

Thanks

Terence

 

你可能感興趣