地產商不宜建上車盤

過 去 幾 年 , 本 港 樓 價 下 跌 趨 勢 持 續 , 以 至 人 們 都 不 敢 入 市 , 以 免 招 至 損 失 。 市 面 上 唯 一 會 入 市 的 人 是 初 次 入 市 的 買 家 。 首 先 , 他 們 有 實 際 上 的 需 要 , 他 們 過 去 未 有 物 業 , 急 於 要 用 時 , 就 只 好 買 。 其 次 , 他 們 是 樓 價 下 跌 的 得 益 者 , 他 們 以 前 未 有 樓 , 樓 價 下 跌 他 們 沒 有 損 失 , 反 令 他 們 變 成 有 資 格 購 入 更 高 檔 次 的 樓 宇 。 至 於 那 些 未 有 物 業 的 人 , 他 們 本 身 不 是 沒 有 樓 住 , 換 樓 的 逼 切 性 始 終 不 及 首 次 置 業 的 人 強 , 故 在 前 景 未 明 朗 的 情 況 下 , 可 拖 的 就 觀 望 一 下 再 說 。 因 此 市 場 上 只 餘 下 初 次 置 業 人 士 入 市 。 
在 這 種 情 況 下 , 地 產 商 不 得 不 把 一 些 原 先 以 換 樓 人 士 為 對 象 的 發 展 項 目 也 轉 向 首 次 置 業 者 兜 售 。 由 於 首 次 置 業 者 的 負 擔 能 力 有 限 , 地 產 商 被 逼 把 售 價 調 低 去 配 合 首 次 置 業 者 的 購 買 力 。 結 果 樓 價 大 跌 , 換 樓 人 士 更 不 敢 入 市 。 
地 產 商 這 種 減 價 政 策 發 展 至 最 極 端 時 , 曾 一 度 揚 言 要 與 房 委 會 搶 居 屋 客 , 這 種 饑 不 擇 食 的 態 度 , 把 原 先 二 手 市 場 上 的 換 樓 階 梯 完 全 破 壞 。 
換 樓 階 梯 最 好 由 最 低 一 級 起 步 , 細 單 位 的 業 主 有 機 會 套 現 , 才 有 能 力 買 中 型 單 位 。 然 後 中 型 單 位 的 業 主 才 可 以 換 大 單 位 。 然 而 , 現 在 首 次 置 業 人 士 大 部 分 都 被 地 產 商 的 新 盤 搶 去 , 二 手 市 場 的 上 車 盤 根 本 乏 人 問 津 。 首 次 置 業 人 士 即 使 去 二 手 市 場 買 樓 , 也 不 用 揀 細 單 位 , 他 們 大 有 能 力 買 一 些 中 型 單 位 。 在 這 種 情 況 下 , 社 會 上 就 有 一 批 小 業 主 被 凍 結 起 來 , 他 們 持 有 的 物 業 既 不 及 房 委 會 的 產 品 , 又 不 及 私 人 發 展 商 的 產 品 , 無 法 成 為 換 樓 的 動 力 。 
近 月 樓 市 好 轉 , 發 展 商 應 更 改 他 們 的 低 價 , 搶 首 次 置 業 客 的 銷 售 策 畧 , 應 提 價 逼 首 置 客 重 回 二 手 市 場 。 這 樣 二 手 市 場 的 小 業 主 才 有 套 現 機 會 。 他 們 成 功 賣 出 自 己 的 單 位 後 , 就 會 幫 襯 發 展 商 買 新 樓 。 
換 樓 人 士 的 購 買 力 較 強 , 一 手 市 場 的 樓 價 可 因 此 獲 得 更 大 的 支 持 力 。 因 此 , 地 產 商 今 後 不 宜 建 太 多 上 車 盤 。 要 上 車 的 , 二 手 市 場 有 大 量 選 擇 。 發 展 商 走 去 與 小 業 主 搶 客 , 長 遠 並 沒 有 好 處 , 只 會 把 換 樓 機 制 破 壞 , 因 此 這 種 手 法 必 須 重 新 修 訂 。 近 期 樓 價 已 見 底 回 升 , 是 調 整 策 畧 的 好 時 機 , 希 望 發 展 商 好 好 把 握 。