樓價巳嚴重偏低

近 期 樓 價 又 進 一 步 滑 落 ， 反 映 二 手 住 宅 樓 價 的 中 原 城 市 指 數 ， 上 週 已 跌 至 37.30， 再 創 歷 史 性 新 低 。 一 般 經 濟 學 生 的 供 求 理 論 ， 認 為 價 格 下 跌 可 剌 激 需 求 ， 因 為 價 格 跌 了 ， 能 買 得 起 的 人 一 定 會 隨 之 增 加 。 這 種 理 論 於 消 費 性 商 品 而 言 應 該 是 不 錯 的 。 鮑 魚 的 價 錢 如 果 大 幅 下 跌 的 話 ， 一 定 有 不 少 以 前 未 嘗 過 滋 味 的 人 會 去 試 試 。 然 而 樓 宇 屬 於 投 資 性 相 當 重 的 商 品 ， 買 家 的 動 力 除 了 來 自 使 用 的 需 要 外 ， 更 來 自 投 資 增 值 的 期 望 。 因 此 ， 樓 價 不 斷 下 跌 的 時 候 ， 投 資 者 會 預 期 樓 價 還 會 進 一 步 下 跌 ， 早 買 只 會 招 至 虧 損 ， 故 跌 了 反 而 不 敢 買 。 
因 此 ， 近 期 發 展 商 雖 大 幅 減 了 價 ， 但 效 果 並 不 太 明 顯 ， 因 為 當 前 缺 乏 的 不 是 購 買 力 而 是 信 心 。 一 些 新 盤 差 不 多 已 是 零 首 期 ， 有 些 還 送 律 師 費 、 印 花 費 等 ， 而 且 每 月 供 款 和 租 金 不 相 上 下 ， 但 不 少 人 依 然 只 租 不 買 ， 反 映 市 場 上 的 投 資 信 心 已 到 達 崩 潰 邊 緣 。 
短 期 而 言 ， 價 格 下 滑 確 會 打 擊 投 資 者 入 市 信 心 ； 但 長 遠 而 言 ， 價 格 仍 會 有 其 他 方 面 的 影 響 力 ， 而 且 是 極 其 關 鍵 的 。 因 為 價 格 一 旦 跌 至 生 產 成 本 以 下 ， 供 應 就 會 逐 漸 減 少 ， 屆 時 人 們 想 租 樓 也 沒 有 供 應 時 ， 那 租 金 就 會 上 升 ， 人 們 對 後 市 的 觀 感 就 會 改 變 ， 那 些 潛 在 的 購 買 力 就 會 被 引 發 出 來 。 
過 去 樓 市 的 週 期 亦 是 一 路 都 沿 著 類 似 的 軌 跡 運 行 。 即 是 說 ， 信 心 強 時 ， 樓 價 會 升 到 一 個 不 合 理 的 高 度 ， 九 六 、 九 七 年 就 是 這 種 形 勢 。 但 當 價 格 升 到 完 全 與 購 買 力 脫 節 時 ， 樓 價 就 會 掉 頭 回 落 ， 越 跌 越 沒 有 人 敢 買 ， 跌 到 一 個 嚴 重 偏 低 的 水 平 ， 人 們 仍 只 租 不 買 ， 直 到 空 置 單 位 都 給 租 去 時 ， 租 金 才 慢 慢 上 升 ， 信 心 才 逐 漸 恢 復 ， 樓 市 又 開 始 另 一 循 環 的 週 期 。 
目 前 的 樓 價 水 平 ， 加 上 低 息 環 境 ， 如 果 以 供 樓 的 支 出 佔 家 庭 入 息 的 比 例 計 ， 可 以 說 是 歷 史 上 的 新 低 。 新 界 一 些 樓 宇 已 跌 至 千 多 元 一 呎 ， 月 供 三 數 千 已 可 以 做 業 主 ， 已 是 大 部 分 家 庭 都 負 擔 得 起 的 水 平 。 這 種 情 況 在 任 何 社 會 都 不 是 經 常 出 現 的 ， 然 而 群 眾 的 思 想 就 是 這 樣 不 可 理 喻 ， 平 的 時 候 他 們 不 敢 買 ， 寧 願 放 過 機 會 ， 到 價 錢 升 了 才 一 起 去 搶 購 ， 口 裏 雖 不 斷 地 怨 ， 但 手 還 是 死 死 地 氣 把 錢 送 出 去 。 有 智 慧 的 投 資 者 應 敢 於 反 潮 流 ， 人 棄 我 取 ， 利 用 當 前 對 買 家 最 有 利 的 形 勢 ， 進 身 成 業 主 階 層 ， 或 趁 機 換 間 大 屋 ， 以 改 善 自 己 的 生 活 質 素 。 
從 購 買 力 的 角 度 來 看 ， 現 時 的 樓 價 比 上 兩 次 低 潮 （ 七 四 七 五 年 及 八 三 八 四 年 的 時 候 ） 還 要 低 。 這 種 情 況 不 可 能 是 一 種 常 態 ， 而 是 在 某 些 特 殊 的 環 境 下 才 產 生 的 。 這 是 一 次 難 得 的 機 會 ， 但 正 如 所 有 機 會 都 伴 隨 風 險 一 樣 ， 要 把 握 這 樣 的 機 會 ， 除 了 要 有 眼 光 及 有 膽 色 之 外 ， 還 要 有 承 擔 風 險 的 能 力 ， 這 方 面 需 讀 者 自 己 去 衡 量 。