經紀睇淡 市已淡盡

最 近 不 少 行 家 都 調 整 了 年 初 時 對 後 市 的 樂 觀 估 計 ， 由 預 計 會 升 一 成 至 成 半 改 為 平 穩 至 輕 微 下 跌 。 這 是 一 種 不 尋 常 的 改 變 ， 因 為 地 產 經 紀 向 來 是 市 場 上 最 遲 一 批 看 淡 後 市 的 人 ， 只 要 市 場 尚 能 找 到 一 點 利 好 的 因 素 ， 經 紀 就 會 把 希 望 寄 托 在 這 些 因 素 上 。 這 是 他 們 的 本 能 行 為 ， 因 為 他 們 日 常 的 主 要 工 作 就 是 叫 人 買 樓 ， 如 果 他 們 自 己 也 不 相 信 後 市 會 好 ， 他 們 又 何 來 動 力 去 催 促 客 人 入 市 呢 ？ 想 欺 騙 人 的 人 總 是 少 數 ， 而 且 騙 人 總 會 心 虛 ， 不 及 真 正 相 信 樓 市 會 好 的 人 那 麼 有 感 染 力 。 所 以 ， 很 多 經 紀 都 會 不 自 覺 地 對 自 己 進 行 催 眠 ， 使 自 己 真 的 相 信 後 市 會 好 起 來 ， 情 況 一 如 運 動 員 出 賽 前 要 催 眠 自 己 ， 使 自 己 相 信 今 賽 一 定 勝 出 一 樣 ， 非 這 樣 運 動 員 不 能 進 入 最 高 作 戰 狀 態 。 此 之 所 以 地 產 代 理 公 司 的 發 言 人 在 公 開 評 論 後 市 時 ， 總 是 傾 向 看 好 後 市 的 多 ， 其 根 本 原 因 就 是 因 為 他 們 不 想 破 壞 自 己 公 司 的 作 戰 能 力 。 
然 而 ， 今 年 以 來 ， 可 以 拿 來 唱 好 的 因 素 都 用 盡 了 ， 但 市 況 依 然 不 就 ， 看 不 到 有 什 麼 起 色 ， 連 地 產 代 理 也 失 望 起 來 。 
這 可 能 反 映 市 況 是 衰 到 盡 ， 因 為 連 最 有 需 要 看 好 的 人 ， 也 不 敢 看 好 後 市 了 。 也 即 是 說 ， 現 時 入 市 的 人 ， 基 本 上 不 是 因 為 看 好 後 市 而 想 入 市 圖 利 ， 而 是 真 正 有 實 際 需 要 ， 不 管 後 市 好 壞 他 們 也 要 趕 著 用 的 了 。 因 此 ， 我 認 為 目 前 市 場 的 成 交 量 已 跌 到 最 基 本 的 支 持 位 ， 不 可 能 進 一 步 下 跌 了 。 能 在 這 個 水 平 成 交 量 也 生 存 到 的 經 紀 已 可 證 明 自 己 是 有 生 存 能 力 的 了 。 因 此 ， 我 自 己 對 後 市 的 看 法 反 不 如 年 初 那 麼 悲 觀 ， 最 壞 也 不 外 如 是 ， 何 懼 之 有 ？ ！ 
事 實 上 ， 剛 過 去 的 星 期 六 日 ， 市 場 的 交 投 似 有 逐 漸 活 躍 起 來 的 跡 象 ， 尤 其 是 細 價 樓 ， 在 首 次 置 業 者 的 支 持 下 ， 交 投 相 當 活 躍 。 如 果 細 價 樓 的 價 格 能 因 而 穩 定 下 來 ， 其 他 類 別 的 樓 價 才 有 止 跌 回 穩 的 基 礎 。