樓非消耗性商品

有 官 員 說 : 樓 價 低 了 那 麼 多 , 買 得 起 的 人 應 該 多 了 。 從 負 擔 能 力 去 看 , 現 時 樓 價 應 是 近 十 年 裏 最 抵 買 的 了 , 因 此 樓 市 將 逐 漸 復 甦 。 從 簡 單 的 經 濟 理 論 去 看 , 這 種 分 析 好 像 一 點 不 錯 。 
一 般 讀 經 濟 的 人 , 首 先 接 觸 的 就 是 供 求 理 論 。 這 種 理 論 認 為 : 價 格 越 高 , 有 效 需 求 就 會 減 少 , 於 是 生 產 商 只 好 割 價 求 售 , 當 價 錢 下 跌 後 , 生 產 商 就 會 無 利 可 圖 , 不 得 不 減 產 , 甚 至 倒 閉 , 結 果 市 場 上 的 供 應 就 會 逐 漸 減 少 , 直 到 供 不 應 求 , 只 好 以 價 高 者 得 的 原 則 去 分 配 生 產 不 足 的 商 品 , 於 是 價 格 又 被 搶 高 , 開 始 另 一 個 經 濟 週 期 。 
這 項 理 論 的 立 足 點 是 : 商 品 的 價 格 越 高 , 買 得 到 的 人 越 少 ; 商 品 的 價 格 越 低 , 買 得 起 的 人 就 越 多 , 需 求 越 大 。 經 濟 學 家 把 價 格 高 需 求 少 , 價 格 低 需 求 多 看 作 是 不 解 自 明 的 公 理 。 但 他 們 所 說 的 只 是 消 耗 性 的 商 品 , 官 員 不 應 隨 意 套 用 在 投 資 性 的 商 品 上 。 地 產 市 場 與 鮑 魚 市 場 的 表 現 絕 不 一 樣 。 
當 鮑 魚 的 價 格 下 降 時 , 那 些 以 前 吃 不 起 鮑 魚 的 人 一 定 蠢 蠢 欲 試 , 而 那 些 以 前 只 能 間 中 吃 一 兩 次 的 人 一 定 會 多 吃 幾 次 。 但 地 產 市 場 的 表 現 卻 不 一 樣 。 樓 房 是 不 能 吃 下 肚 的 , 買 了 樓 之 後 , 樓 便 成 了 一 個 人 的 資 產 。 如 果 樓 價 上 升 , 他 就 會 慶 幸 自 己 作 了 一 個 正 確 的 投 資 決 定 , 有 能 力 時 會 換 間 大 一 些 的 , 甚 至 買 多 一 間 收 租 。 相 反 , 如 果 樓 價 下 跌 , 他 就 會 覺 得 買 樓 是 一 項 錯 誤 的 投 資 抉 擇 , 因 為 這 令 他 的 資 產 萎 縮 了 。 以 後 他 會 傾 向 租 樓 , 而 不 買 樓 。 這 樣 , 樓 價 低 了 , 需 求 不 但 沒 有 增 加 , 反 而 比 前 更 少 。 因 此 , 官 員 說 樓 價 下 跌 之 後 , 需 求 會 逐 漸 增 加 , 這 個 預 言 不 可 能 立 即 兌 現 。 
如 果 香 港 人 人 都 未 有 樓 , 樓 價 下 跌 後 一 定 多 人 買 , 但 香 港 有 52%以 上 的 家 庭 已 有 自 己 的 樓 , 另 有 四 成 家 庭 住 在 政 府 提 供 的 廉 租 公 屋 裏 , 在 投 資 環 境 不 利 時 , 香 港 人 沒 有 買 樓 的 逼 切 性 。 因 此 , 樓 價 越 跌 , 反 會 嚇 到 人 人 都 不 敢 買 樓 。 香 港 現 在 正 處 於 這 種 狀 態 。 政 府 不 能 以 為 樓 價 跌 了 就 自 然 會 有 人 出 來 買 樓 。 樓 不 是 消 耗 性 商 品 , 而 是 一 種 投 資 性 商 品 , 這 兩 類 商 品 的 市 場 表 現 是 截 然 不 一 樣 的 。 要 投 資 市 場 活 躍 起 來 , 不 能 純 靠 價 低 作 吸 引 , 而 要 改 變 市 場 對 未 來 的 預 期 , 只 有 當 人 們 預 期 樓 價 會 升 時 , 樓 市 才 會 活 躍 起 來 。 

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