市場對加息早有預期 再大幅下跌機會不大

美 國 終 於 宣 布 加 息 半 厘 ， 以 本 港 銀 行 近 期 常 出 現 負 結 餘 的 情 況 來 看 ， 香 港 是 不 得 不 跟 隨 美 國 加 息 的 。 本 週 五 銀 行 公 會 開 會 後 ， 當 立 即 宣 布 加 息 半 厘 ， 不 會 多 也 不 會 少 。 有 地 產 代 理 公 司 自 稱 作 了 一 次 市 場 調 查 ， 以 了 解 市 民 對 加 息 的 反 映 ， 得 到 的 結 果 是 ： 樓 價 因 此 而 再 跌 多 十 至 十 五 個 巴 仙 。 
我 不 知 道 他 們 的 調 查 以 何 種 方 法 進 行 ， 但 對 他 們 的 調 查 結 果 則 不 完 全 認 同 。 
美 國 會 加 息 半 厘 ， 早 已 是 市 場 的 共 識 ， 在 聯 邦 儲 備 局 宣 布 加 息 之 前 ， 市 場 早 已 有 足 夠 的 時 間 作 出 反 應 。 事 實 上 自 上 月 中 以 來 ， 股 市 及 樓 市 都 已 作 了 大 幅 的 調 整 ， 尤 其 是 股 市 已 多 次 大 上 大 落 ， 進 行 好 淡 交 鋒 ， 相 信 加 息 的 消 息 已 為 市 場 所 消 化 。 
至 於 樓 市 ， 自 股 市 向 下 調 整 後 ， 樓 市 亦 隨 即 一 同 回 落 ， 不 論 是 一 手 市 場 還 是 二 手 市 場 ， 跌 幅 都 已 有 百 分 之 十 左 右 ， 亦 足 以 反 映 地 產 市 場 對 加 息 後 果 所 作 的 預 期 。 因 此 ， 樓 價 在 加 息 前 已 經 回 落 ， 而 不 會 等 到 加 息 後 才 有 反 應 ， 所 以 我 不 認 為 樓 價 短 期 內 還 會 再 跌 一 成 至 成 半 那 麼 多 ， 如 果 將 來 再 跌 ， 也 是 基 於 其 他 原 因 ， 而 不 是 因 為 這 個 已 為 市 場 所 消 化 的 消 息 。 
股 市 方 面 的 反 應 就 明 顯 反 映 出 加 息 的 消 息 已 無 法 再 在 市 場 起 負 面 作 用 ， 相 反 世 界 各 地 的 股 市 大 部 分 都 趁 聯 邦 儲 備 加 息 前 率 先 反 彈 。 
人 類 的 理 性 預 期 ， 足 以 使 事 先 張 揚 的 壞 消 息 ， 在 正 式 宣 佈 前 提 早 為 市 場 所 消 化 。 到 正 式 公 布 時 ， 市 場 的 反 應 則 是 逆 向 而 行 的 。 此 之 所 以 市 場 會 總 結 出 經 驗 ， 叫 人 趁 好 消 息 出 貨 ， 見 壞 消 息 反 要 入 貨 。 
地 產 市 場 的 反 應 雖 不 會 如 股 市 那 麼 迅 速 ， 但 在 資 訊 流 通 得 這 麼 快 的 時 代 ， 相 信 之 前 的 地 產 交 易 中 ， 買 賣 雙 方 都 已 把 美 國 會 加 息 半 厘 的 因 素 考 慮 在 內 ， 既 然 今 次 加 息 沒 有 加 多 也 沒 有 加 少 ， 故 市 場 不 應 再 有 新 的 更 強 烈 的 反 應 。