樓價升幅特變的臨界線

我 第 一 次 接 觸 “ 臨 界 ” 這 個 概 念 , 是 我 還 在 讀 小 學 那 年 。 我 在 一 本 科 學 雜 誌 上 看 到 一 篇 介 紹 原 子 彈 製 造 方 法 的 文 章 , 發 覺 原 來 要 製 造 這 麼 大 威 力 的 炸 彈 , 其 原 理 竟 是 這 麼 簡 單 , 關 鍵 只 於 你 能 不 能 擁 有 足 夠 的 份 量 的 高 純 度 的 鈾 235 。 鈾 
不 過 原 子 內 部 絕 大 部 份 是 空 間 , 中 子 射 中 另 一 個 原 子 核 的 機 會 很 少 , 必 須 把 足 夠 份 量 的 鈾 
要 在 四 百 字 裏 說 明 如 何 製 造 原 子 彈 , 只 可 以 把 它 簡 單 化 , 有 科 學 知 識 的 讀 者 請 勿 見 笑 。 我 今 天 要 講 的 不 是 原 子 物 理 學 , 而 是 想 說 明 在 地 產 市 場 變 動 形 態 上 , 一 樣 可 以 應 用 臨 界 這 種 概 念 。 
我 認 為 樓 市 要 麼 就 是 不 升 , 一 升 至 某 一 幅 度 就 會 引 起 連 銷 返 應 , 而 這 個 臨 界 升 幅 就 是 資 金 成 本 的 年 息 率 。 
理 由 很 日 簡 單 , 如 果 樓 價 的 升 幅 連 抵 銷 投 資 成 本 也 不 足 夠 , 那 有 資 金 肯 流 入 地 產 市 場 。 但 如 因 人 們 相 信 未 來 樓 價 升 幅 會 超 越 利 息 成 , 那 自 然 會 吸 引 大 量 閒 資 入 市 , 越 多 資 金 入 市 , 樓 市 就 越 升 得 快 , 樓 市 越 升 得 快 , 能 吸 引 來 的 資 金 就 越 多 , 在 這 種 連 銷 反 應 下 , 樓 市 就 如 脫 韁 野 馬 般 狂 升 。 
譬 如 現 時 的 貸 款 利 率 是 
目 前 , 社 會 上 相 信 明 年 樓 市 必 然 會 升 越 貸 款 利 率 的 人 仍 不 多 , 所 以 不 可 能 會 有 太 多 的 投 資 資 金 進 入 地 產 市 場 , 在 沒 有 投 資 者 參 與 的 情 況 下 , 明 年 樓 市 是 不 可 能 大 好 的 。 我 估 計 , 明 年 基 本 上 仍 是 用 家 市 場 , 除 非 單 靠 用 家 的 力 量 已 足 以 使 樓 市 升 破 它 的 臨 界 線 , 否 則 市 場 不 容 易 有 大 突 破 。 
作 為 一 個 投 資 者 , 除 了 考 慮 一 些 基 本 性 的 政 經 因 素 外 , 一 定 要 留 意 上 述 可 以 引 起 連 鎖 反 應 的 升 幅 臨 界 線 , 事 關 一 旦 升 破 市 場 就 會 真 正 大 幅 上 升 。 只 有 把 握 這 種 時 機 , 投 資 者 才 能 真 正 賺 到 利 潤 。
235 是 一 種 放 射 性 原 素 , 不 斷 地 有 中 子 從 原 子 核 中 放 射 出 來 , 只 要 有 一 顆 中 子 射 中 另 一 個 原 子 核 , 就 能 使 這 個 原 子 核 分 裂 , 射 出 更 多 的 中 子 , 於 是 產 生 連 鎖 反 應 , 產 生 分 裂 性 核 爆 。 235放 在 一 起 , 中 子 射 出 去 時 才 有 機 會 射 中 另 一 個 原 子 核 , 並 產 生 連 鎖 反 應 。 這 個 足 夠 份 量 , 就 是 所 謂 “ 臨 界 質 ” ( Crit­i­cal mass) 。 原 子 彈 製 做 的 方 法 , 就 是 提 煉 出 足 夠 的 達 到 臨 界 質 需 要 份 量 的 鈾 235, 先 把 它 分 成 兩 份 , 由 於 每 份 未 達 到 臨 界 質 份 量 , 故 不 會 爆 炸 , 到 需 要 引 爆 時 , 只 要 把 這 兩 份 純 鈾 235推 到 一 起 , 由 於 兩 份 加 起 來 已 達 臨 界 質 份 量 , 連 鎖 核 分 裂 就 會 出 現 。 由 於 原 子 核 分 裂 的 時 候 部 分 質 量 就 會 變 成 能 量 , 以 E=MC2( E=能 量 , M=質 量 , C=光 速 ) 的 方 程 式 釋 放 出 來 , 造 成 巨 大 的 殺 傷 力 。 8.5%一 年 , 如 果 樓 價 升 幅 能 超 越 8.5%一 年 的 話 , 即 借 錢 買 樓 也 有 著 數 , 那 麼 必 然 會 使 資 金 流 入 地 產 市 場 , 樓 價 就 會 出 現 連 鎖 式 上 升 。 可 惜 九 八 、 九 九 年 都 屬 於 下 跌 市 , 即 年 尾 價 低 於 年 頭 價 , 在 這 種 情 況 下 , 怎 會 多 投 資 資 金 流 入 地 產 市 場 。 必 須 等 樓 市 的 升 幅 連 續 一 段 時 間 都 能 以 8.5%一 年 的 速 度 上 升 , 市 場 上 的 投 資 者 才 會 相 信 投 資 樓 市 可 以 有 錢 賺 。