救股市不如救樓市

                        港 大 商 學 院 院 長 王 于 漸 教 授 建 議 :                            政 府 可 運 用 外 匯 儲 備 , 或 向 國 際 市 場 低 息 借 入 美 元 , 以 購 入 新 造 樓 宇 按 揭 方 式 , 注 資 入 銀 行 系 統 , 增 加 流 動 資 金 , 鼓 勵 銀 行 多 做 按 揭 , 令 樓 價 獲 得 支 持 。 香 港 的 股 市 中 地 產 成 分 很 高 , 如 果 樓 價 能 穩 定 下 來 , 股 市 亦 會 穩 定 下 來 , 炒 家 要 上 下 其 手 就 不 會 那 麼 容 易 。                             我 非 常 贊 成 王 教 授 的 意 見 。 早 在 金 融 風 暴 未 惡 化 之 前 , 我 已 在 本 欄 提 出 警 告 , 政 府 不 能 任 由 樓 價 無 休 止 地 下 滑 , 這 樣 下 去 必 然 會 危 害 金 融 系 統 , 影 響 整 體 經 濟 。 現 在 政 府 如 果 真 的 想 救 市 的 話 , 應 該 從 地 產 入 手 。             政 府 與 其 在 股 匯 市 場 與 炒 家 鬥 , 不 如 開 闢 新 戰 場 –地 產 市 場 。 地 產 市 場 的 勝 負 將 會 是 更 關 鍵 性 、 更 根 本 性 的 。 能 在 地 產 市 場 扭 轉 局 勢 , 股 匯 市 場 上 的 戰 爭 就 能 輕 易 取 得 勝 利 。 樓 價 一 旦 穩 定 下 來 , 股 價 就 會 顯 得 吸 引 , 市 場 上 的 資 金 就 會 自 動 入 市 。 這 樣 就 可 以 打 一 場 人 民 戰 爭 , 不 用 動 用 政 府 的 資 源 , 亦 不 怕 被 人 指 責 作 市 場 干 預 。 此 外 , 國 際 炒 家 也 可 能 因 而 被 分 化 , 原 有 的 沽 家 , 有 部 分 可 能 因 而 轉 咤 , 政 府 可 以 借 力 打 力 。 
            政 府 把 戰 線 轉 移 至 地 產 市 場 , 還 有 一 個 有 利 因 素 , 就 是 地 產 市 場 上 尚 未 有 衍 生 工 具 , 國 際 炒 家 的 強 項 沒 有 機 會 發 揮 。 過 往 國 際 炒 家 在 香 港 地 產 市 場 上 根 本 缺 乏 實 質 的 投 資 , 因 此 他 們 的 手 上 完 全 沒 有 彈 藥 , 想 沽 也 沒 有 貨 。 樓 宇 買 賣 要 經 律 師 查 契 , 不 能 借 人 家 的 樓 來 沽 , 香 港 亦 沒 有 樓 宇 指 數 的 期 貨 市 場 , 國 際 炒 家 可 謂 無 所 施 其 技 , 政 府 可 以 勝 券 在 握 。 因 此 , 我 認 為 八 月 份 政 府 在 股 匯 市 場 取 得 首 仗 勝 利 後 , 九 月 份 可 以 調 重 兵 到 樓 市 , 令 炒 家 不 知 所 措 。