救市措施初見成效

為 制 止 樓 市 跌 幅 擴 大 , 政 府 決 定 暫 停 賣 地 十 個 月 , 並 增 加 首 次 置 業 及 自 置 居 所 貸 款 計 劃 的 名 額 共 一 萬 一 千 五 百 個 。 我 相 信 這 些 措 施 將 對 樓 市 產 生 實 質 的 影 響 , 因 為 它 一 方 面 減 少 了 供 應 , 另 一 方 面 又 增 加 了 需 求 , 可 謂 雙 管 齊 下 。 有 人 或 者 會 說 , 暫 停 賣 地 對 短 期 的 樓 宇 供 應 不 會 有 什 麼 影 響 。 它 的 影 響 要 三 至 五 年 後 才 慢 慢 顯 露 出 來 。 不 過 , 人 有 理 性 預 期 的 能 力 , 十 月 暫 停 賣 地 就 會 令 三 至 五 年 後 的 樓 宇 落 成 量 大 量 減 少 , 起 碼 令 那 時 現 樓 市 場 會 供 應 不 足 , 在 供 不 應 求 的 情 況 下 , 樓 價 怎 能 不 升 , 當 人 們 預 期 將 來 樓 價 會 上 升 的 話 , 今 天 的 樓 價 就 會 立 即 對 此 因 素 作 即 時 的 反 映 , 正 如 機 鐵 因 素 不 用 等 機 鐵 通 車 才 在 機 鐵 沿 線 物 業 的 價 格 上 反 映 出 來 一 樣 。 此 外 , 前 一 階 段 樓 市 之 所 以 下 跌 得 這 麼 急 , 皆 因 發 展 商 的 減 價 戰 造 成 , 現 在 發 展 商 不 用 籌 錢 去 買 地 , 資 金 的 壓 力 應 可 減 少 , 不 用 再 急 於 賣 樓 花 去 籌 集 資 金 了 , 不 急 著 要 賣 , 價 錢 可 能 會 定 得 硬 一 點 , 這 樣 發 展 商 之 間 的 惡 性 競 爭 就 有 機 會 告 一 段 落 , 不 再 對 二 手 市 場 造 成 這 麼 大 的 壓 力 。 希 望 樓 市 能 因 而 慢 慢 喘 定 。 事 實 上 措 施 公 布 以 來 , 市 場 的 反 應 基 本 上 是 正 面 的 。 近 兩 日 睇 樓 活 動 已 明 顯 增 加 , 而 且 勇 於 作 決 定 的 人 也 多 了 。 以 我 們 公 司 的 佣 金 收 入 來 看 , 公 布 前 , 平 均 每 日 只 是 二 百 萬 左 右 , 公 布 後 立 即 上 升 至 三 百 萬 一 日 , 增 加 了 接 近 百 分 之 五 十 , 其 中 大 部 分 來 自 新 界 區 。 單 以 新 界 區 而 言 , 措 施 公 布 前 , 我 們 平 均 每 日 的 佣 金 收 入 只 有 一 百 萬 左 右 , 近 日 卻 升 至 一 百 八 十 萬 一 日 , 增 幅 達 百 分 之 八 十 , 反 而 市 區 的 佣 金 收 入 , 只 從 一 百 萬 一 日 升 至 一 百 二 十 萬 左 右 , 升 幅 只 有 百 分 之 二 十 。 新 界 區 的 表 現 較 市 區 好 , 是 因 為 新 界 區 的 樓 價 普 遍 比 市 區 低 , 比 較 適 合 初 次 置 業 的 買 家 , 而 且 , 新 界 區 的 樓 宇 , 樓 齡 較 新 , 發 展 規 模 夠 大 , 設 施 較 為 齊 備 , 比 較 適 合 年 青 一 代 的 買 家 。 當 前 市 場 的 主 要 動 力 就 是 來 自 這 批 年 青 一 代 的 首 次 置 業 者 , 所 以 新 界 區 先 旺 起 上 來 是 很 自 然 的 。 跟 據 過 往 經 驗 , 新 界 區 旺 一 個 時 期 後 , 就 會 解 放 一 批 換 樓 的 潛 在 需 要 , 而 換 樓 人 仕 的 對 象 又 會 轉 移 去 市 區 較 方 便 較 高 檔 的 地 區 , 故 我 相 信 市 區 的 交 投 量 亦 會 慢 慢 增 加 。 希 望 今 次 政 府 的 救 市 措 施 真 的 能 使 樓 市 見 底 回 穩 , 這 不 只 是 地 產 界 的 意 願 , 而 是 大 部 分 香 港 人 都 希 望 看 到 的 。 
禿頭藥也得照吃當 政 府 公 布 上 個 月 內 都 不 會 賣 地 時 , 我 聽 了 都 有 點 錯 愕 。 為 什 麼 十 個 月 這 麼 長 ? 之 前 我 亦 提 議 過 凍 結 賣 地 , 但 只 是 以 三 個 月 為 期 , 到 期 再 檢 討 , 有 需 要 可 以 繼 續 凍 結 , 但 市 道 好 轉 的 話 , 又 可 恢 復 賣 地 。 這 樣 會 比 較 靈 活 , 不 至 造 成 太 多 的 負 面 影 響 。 
因 為 , 十 個 月 不 賣 地 可 能 會 令 將 來 的 供 應 出 現 斷 層 , 令 樓 宇 的 落 成 量 在 將 來 某 一 段 時 間 裏 異 乎 尋 常 地 短 缺 。 這 不 但 會 造 成 價 格 的 大 幅 波 動 , 而 且 直 接 影 響 民 生 。 
現 在 , 香 港 私 人 市 場 的 住 宅 供 應 , 一 半 左 右 來 自 政 府 新 批 租 的 土 地 , 即 透 過 拍 賣 招 標 批 出 的 部 分 , 另 一 半 來 自 發 展 商 的 舊 樓 重 建 , 包 括 利 用 更 改 土 地 用 途 而 興 建 的 部 份 。 政 府 不 賣 地 , 私 人 住 宅 的 供 應 起 碼 少 了 一 半 , 這 將 提 供 發 展 商 一 個 大 好 的 賺 錢 機 會 , 只 要 發 展 商 有 辦 法 填 補 這 個 空 檔 , 將 來 一 定 可 以 奇 貨 可 居 , 不 愁 賣 不 出 。 難 怪 有 發 展 商 隨 即 表 示 會 恢 復 更 改 土 地 用 途 的 申 請 , 因 為 這 個 時 間 補 地 價 必 然 便 宜 , 但 到 落 成 時 又 不 會 遇 到 太 多 的 競 爭 , 真 是 何 樂 而 不 為 ? 所 以 今 次 措 施 確 實 益 了 那 批 有 土 地 儲 備 又 有 現 金 在 手 的 大 發 展 商 。 
不 過 , 話 需 說 回 來 , 我 並 不 同 意 有 些 媒 介 對 政 府 的 指 責 , 說 政 府 今 次 暫 停 賣 地 , 是 受 不 住 發 展 商 的 壓 力 , 出 手 的 目 的 去 救 發 展 商 。 我 相 信 , 今 次 政 府 被 迫 出 重 手 , 是 因 為 的 確 不 能 再 讓 樓 價 無 休 止 地 跌 下 去 … 。 否 則 整 體 經 濟 都 會 被 破 壞 , 全 體 市 民 都 要 為 此 受 苦 , 所 以 , 即 使 是 採 取 一 些 極 端 一 些 的 辦 法 , 也 在 所 不 惜 。 我 相 信 , 政 府 停 止 賣 地 , 一 停 就 是 十 個 月 , 就 是 要 給 市 民 一 個 強 烈 的 訊 息 , 就 是 政 府 今 次 是 認 真 的 , 不 惜 有 副 作 用 , 也 要 樓 價 止 跌 , 因 為 能 否 挽 救 樓 市 是 當 前 經 濟 的 主 要 矛 盾 , 是 性 命 尤 關 , 這 個 問 題 不 解 決 , 其 他 做 什 麼 都 沒 有 意 思 , 因 此 有 副 作 用 也 顧 不 了 那 麼 多 了 。 等 如 一 個 人 病 重 了 , 明 知 這 藥 吃 了 會 禿 頭 , 為 了 救 命 也 得 照 吃 了 。 
 
陳 永 傑 對 市 場 評 釋 
反 價 買 家 卻 步 ‧ 未 有 條 件 反 彈 
長 線 客 亦 睇 樓 
信 心 回 增 實 證